EUR/HUF set to reach 415 by year-end – Commerzbank

The Hungarian forint exchange rate weakened sharply once again  on Wednesday amid adverse developments on Hungary’s EU funding side. Economists at Commerzbank expect the EUR/HUF to hit 415 by the end of the year.

EU fund scare hits forint again

“Reporting from multiple sources raises the likelihood that at least some fund sanctions will, indeed, be imposed on Hungary. Markets have, so far, only minimally priced-in this risk of actual fund deduction. Therefore, the forint’s weakness now appears consistent.”

“The risk is also double-edged – meaning that not only the possible loss of funds, but the (negative) counter-reaction to this within Hungarian politics also needs to be considered – and will now be gradually priced-in by the markets.”

“We see EUR/HUF rising to 415.00 by the end of 2022.”