Canada: Looking for job growth to slow to 35K – TDS

Key Canadian data will be released on Friday with the March employment report. Analysts at TD Securities expect jobs to grow by 35.000. They consider the number will have little impact on the near term path of the Bank of Canada (BoC).  

Key Quotes: 

“The March Labour Force Survey will provide the last major data point ahead of next week's Bank of Canada meeting. TD looks for job growth to slow to 35k, below the market consensus for +80k, following an exceptionally strong performance in February. A 35k print should help nudge the unemployment rate lower to 5.4%, while wage growth should push higher towards 3.8% y/y.”

“USDCAD is mostly trading where it should, with high-frequency fair value sitting near 1.25. We would look to fade rallies ahead of 1.27 but think more of the action for CAD lies on the crosses.”

“With 50bps hikes well in play, this print should have little impact on the near-term BoC path, we need to see a string of deterioration to do so.”