Look for a well below consensus 1.5% MoM drop in US Retail Sales – JP Morgan

JP Morgan came out with downbeat forecasts of the US Retail Sales for July, scheduled for release on Tuesday. The headline economic data is expected to drop to -0.2% from +0.6% prior on an MoM basis.

The US bank highlights the latest downtick in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich consumer sentiment), as well as the Delta covid variant, responsible for the pessimistic outlook.

Key quotes

The decline in UMich consumer sentiment last week aligns with recent indications that the Delta variant may be suppressing consumer spending and we look for a well below consensus 1.5% m/m drop in tomorrow's July retail sales report.

Also read: US Retail Sales Preview: Dollar booster? Low expectations, market mood point to a clear reaction