US: Retail Sales to rebound in January after falling by 2.1% in previous 3 months – TDS

Previewing next week's key macroeconomic events and data releases in the US, "retail sales probably rebounded in January after falling by 2.1% in the previous three months," said TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"The strength can be explained in part by an exaggerated boost from seasonal factors after less seasonal strength than usual at year-end, but a fresh round of individuals' stimulus payments and an easing of COVID restrictions likely contributed as well."

"The Fed chair appears to have persuaded colleagues that "now is the not the time to be talking about exit" in public. Nor do we expect much on exit strategy in the minutes beyond affirmation of the outcome-based guidance in the statement. Officials have made clear that they will want to see convincing evidence of a rise in inflation before tapering as well as tightening."