Oil: Great rebalancing – TDS

Oil quotas in Texas are dead, but the market is in the process of forcing curtailments nonetheless, per TD Securities.

Key quotes

“We estimate that market-driven declines and a gradual normalization in demand will translate into a Great Rebalancing.”

“Shut-ins and drilling activity in the shale patch continue to show a waning production outlook, with Canadian oil sands also offering support as several firms announce curtailments.”

“We are long Dec-Dec WTI spreads, anticipating that the left tail may have narrowed sufficiently for market participants to begin eyeing opportunities.”

“A Mar21 WTI $44/ bbl call could benefit from a trend reversal amid a Great Rebalancing.”