New Zealand: Larger and more permanent impact on GDP is possible – ANZ

The economic slump underway will be large and have persistent effects. In New Zealand, a larger GDP impact with double-digit rates of unemployment is possible, in the opinion of analysts at ANZ Bank.

Key quotes  

“We are currently forecasting that GDP will slump 17% in Q2, with unemployment rising to 8-9%.”

“We expect an initial bounce-back in GDP once we eventually see activity increase again, but this will not be complete, and we see GDP down 5-6% over the year at this stage.”

“The impact could be larger than we are currently assuming, though. For example, if we had to be at Alert Level 4 for the whole of Q2, then GDP might fall 30% or more.”