US-China trade talks amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts suggest that on top of a bunch of US economic data, any news on the US-China trade talks will take centre stage today.

Key Quotes

“The talks are dragging out but we believe a deal will be struck before 15 December, when Trump is scheduled to raise tariffs further on China. A move we believe he would like to avoid as it will hurt the US economy more than previous tariff increases.”

“We are up for some interesting US numbers today. Core durable goods orders for October will give more insight into the state of investment growth. Capital investments have become the weak spot in the US economy given the weakness in the manufacturing sector globally and the ongoing trade war.”

“Monthly real private consumption growth and PCE core inflation in October will also receive market attention. Based on retail sales, real private consumption growth was solid in October. Based on CPI, PCE core likely rose 0.15% m/m in October, which would yield an unchanged yearly rate of 1.7% y/y; still below the Fed's target of 2.0%. Also US initial jobless claims and Chicago PMI will be out. Both numbers have been weakening lately; markets look for a stabilisation. Finally, we get the second estimate of Q3 GDP.”