Australia trade balance: Missed surplus expectations at 5.926M (AUD is a few pips higher regardless)
- Australia’s August international trade data has been released and has come in lower than the surplus expected.
- Trade Balance: 5,926M vs 6,000M expected and 7,268M prior.
Another historically large surplus was likely, according to analysts at Westpac, who were looking for $5.6bn; noting that the consensus was $6bn, expecting exports to have fallen -3.5%, (prior 1%) led by metal ores, coal and gold. "Imports are likely to have edged up 0.6%,'( (prior 3%)," mostly due to a softer AUD rather than stronger demand," the analysts explained.
The data arrived as follows:
- Exports: vs -3% vs 1% prior.
- Imports: vs 0% vs 3% prior.
- Trade Balance: 5,926M vs 6,000M expected and 7,268M prior.
Note: We had records of A$8bn in June and of July’s A$7.3bn.
AUD/USD, which has been stabilising on US Dollar weakness on the 0.67 handle has subsequently moved a few pips higher despite the miss.
About the trade balance
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
- Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance