WTI Big drop: Marubozu hourly morphing into a 4hr Marubozu and possible bearish shooting star

• Oil prices are offering good two-way business on Thursday following a rally to a fresh swing high of $55.46bbls WTI where supply came in thick and fast and has sent WTI town to a fresh session low of $53.73bbls.
• WTI is juggling various geopolitical headlines and sentiment coupled with global growth risks. 
• BOC Wilkins: Worries a lot about US/China trade war.

WTI bears are making some pretty ambitious moves to the downside, but that train is running at full steam with an initial Marubozu hourly Japanese candlestick with the price on the approach to the 4hr S1 located at 53.52. Firstly, the EIA has revised US October oil production higher by 18k Bpd to 11.555m Bpd. The greenback has also caught a bid, moving its way up from the low of the session down at 95.28 to a current high at 95.53. 

Looking around the fundamentals

Elsewhere, Sino/US trade talk headlines have been filtering their way through onto the street today. Things seem to be moving in a positive direction which should help to underpin market risk appetite, currently seen through the S&P 500 topping prior session's highs and en-route to close the best January in 30 years as the Fed strikes a dovish tone - (Dow was dragged down (-0.2%) by a 8½% fall in DowDuPont after a profit warning based on weaker sales in China and Europe).

However, not all are so optimistic about global trade. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins took a slightly dovish tone today regarding ongoing weakness in wage growth in a speech, titled "A Look Under The Hood of Canada's Job Market". Wilkins also worries a lot about the downside of China-US trade war, although he did say that there are risks to the upside as well. However, in general, that are concerns that many questions remain on whether the two countries can make enough progress before the early-March deadline lapses, considering the U.S. has put a low of an onus on due diligence and it is all still to be determined. Meanwhile, the general consensus on the street is that the Chinese and US relationship is too big to fail. 

In other geo-political news, earlier this week, the U.S. sanctioned the state-run Petróleos de Venezuela SA, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, which has been raising the risk of disruptions to global oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries member. As supply is curbed, the risks of slower global economic growth equate to risks of lover energy consumption and the IMF's downgrade to its economic growth outlook for 2019 is a thorn in the side of bulls which should support prices in the medium term. 

WTI levels

Technically, the double top and bearish Marubozu hourly Japanese candlestick is morphing into a 4hr Marubozu closing stick at the time of writing with a low entrenched below the prior day's US session - bearish. However, the daily chart tells a different story with a high and closing low within the bullish trend and Dec recovery rally. However, the shooting star, a bearish top reversal pattern, will be confirmed at the start of next month if the market continued to decline, warning of a possible trend reversal.