China: Decline in the trade surplus - Rabobank

According to analysts at Rabobank, US President Trump may find some further fodder for tweets today in the Chinese trade data released overnight as China’s trade balance declined to CNY 177bn in July, down from 261bn in June (or to USD 28bn from 41bn, in dollar terms).

Key Quotes

“A decline in the Chinese trade surplus – that must be a sign that tariffs are working right!? While it may be enough for Trump to tweet that his tough stance on China is starting to bear fruits, we would kindly remind him to also look at the fact that Chinese exports are still rising year-on-year.”

“China exported 6% more than July last year (or 12.2% in dollar terms), although imports have also grown significantly. Ironically, moreover, exports to the US specifically continue to increase, with the 12m rolling average reaching another record-level, while imports from the US are not growing at the same pace.”