ECB: Winding back on expectations – AmpGFX

According to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, the fall in the EUR in the last week probably does reflect a shift in views on the ECB. 

Key Quotes

“Earlier in the year, the EUR was strong because the market was anticipating an end to QE and rate rises next year. Those views are likely to be now wound back.”

“Spanish political risk has added to mix giving the EUR another knockdown on Friday.  But there is as much reason to see political risk in Italy and Spain cooling from here.  The fall in the EUR in the last two weeks may have built in much of this risk.”

“I am not that tuned into politics in Italy and Spain that I can speak with confidence on how this may play out. At the moment the market is more highly attuned to news from the region, but reading the tea-leaves is pretty murky.  Trading on political risk is always a tough game.”