UK: Political speeches to take centre stage - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that they’d listen to a speech by BoE governor Mark Carney, or, even better, PM May’s speech on the relationship between Britain and the EU after Brexit for further cues about the political situation.

Key Quotes

“Seeing and listening to the recent barrage of exchanges between the two sides in these negotiations, it is still far from sure whether that relationship will be a good one indeed. May has already called the Commission’s draft text on Brexit “unacceptable”. Meanwhile, the EU has already indicated it will not consider the UK’s idea of a three-basket approach to trade, in which the degree to which regulation of industries is aligned with the EU depends on the bucket the industry is in. Certainly, the seemingly still large differences between the EU and the UK will not inspire much confidence for global trade in the coming months, in addition to the abovementioned fears of a global trade war.”

“Moreover, the UK wants clarity as soon as possible about the transition period it is seeking, but EU Brexit negotiator Barnier already warned yesterday that “certainty about the transition will only come at the end of the process”, which will be “probably early next year”. That would seem rather frustrating if you think about the purpose of such a transition period, namely providing businesses time to adapt.”