US: Expect 0.2% m-o-m decline in topline durable goods orders - Nomura

Based on incoming data, analysts at Nomura forecast a 0.2% m-o-m decline in US topline durable goods orders for December’s preliminary report (Consensus: +0.8%).

Key Quotes

“While industrial production data on vehicle assemblies indicate a positive contribution from motor vehicles and parts orders, volatile orders for civilian aircraft likely dragged down transportation-related orders overall. We expect durable goods orders excluding transportation to decrease 0.1% m-o-m (Consensus: +0.6%), primarily reflecting softness in December’s industrial production of durable goods excluding transportation.”

“Advanced goods trade balance: We forecast a narrower goods trade gap of $66.8bn in December (Consensus: $68.9bn), down from November’s reading of $70.0bn. Incoming container data from sea ports indicate a modest increase in exports while imports may have slowed during the month.”