When are Aussie retail sales and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Aussie retails sales overview

Retail sales are due today for the month of November and are scheduled for a 00:30GMT.

The last (October) retail sales report saw a small rebound, +0.5% (cons +0.3%) with a small upward revision to September. The forecasts are ranging from an increase of anywhere between 0.3% , 0.4% and a potential 0.6% gain. For instance, Westpac forecasts a 0.3% increase for Nov with business surveys suggesting modestly improved retail conditions while consumer sentiment recovered somewhat through Q4. Analysts at TD Securities look for a "small uptick in November, and a more substantial increase in December."  

The optimism comes after the recent lift in consumer confidence that moved back above the 100 level, but consumers still have suffered a spike in electricity, gas and petrol prices.Oil back above $62 is got to hurt, so the December data will be much more important while soft wage growth over the same period has also coincided with the poor results in previous retail sales data.

How could retail sales affect AUD/USD? 

With the greenback on the back foot with the Chinese noise, an inline data or miss could well send the Aussie on the march for a test of the 0.7880 level and cement sentiment for a RBA rate hike at some point in 2018. To the downside, with daily RSI is still lower, the double bottom on the daily sticks could be dented supports and a break below the  10-D SMA at 0.7827 could open a test for the 100-D SMA at 0.7773.

Key notes:

• Forex today: China noise-induced dollar tailspin ahead of Aussie retail sales
• AUD/USD analysis: Aussie up, but a bullish continuation needs further confirmation

About Aussie Retail sales:

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.