UK services PMI and Yellen speech amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

In the US, Fed Chair Yellen is due to give the opening remarks at a Conference Bank seminar tonight and will be the key economic event for the day, suggests the analysis team at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“It is scheduled to take only 15 minutes and we do not expect her to express any new views (also because she has been quite outspoken recently). We think markets are more interested in ADP employment, as it may give us some hints about how jobs growth was affected by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (but keep in mind that ADP jobs growth has overestimated non-farm payrolls this year). Also note that ISM non-manufacturing is due at 16:00 CET.”

“In the UK, PMI service are due, which we estimate fell to 52.7 in September from 53.2 in August. If so, this would be another sign that growth was also weak in Q3 after the weak GDP growth prints in Q1 and Q2. Also, there will be focus on PM Theresa May, due to speak here on the final day of the Conservative Party conference.”

“The oil market is likely to be positioned for EIA data today (4:30 pm CEST) to show a large drop in crude inventories after API data yesterday posted a 4mb drop last week. There was a limited response in oil market to the news though.”