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11 Feb 2014
Flash: Has the AUD bottomed? - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank looked into AUD/USD, concerned about the Australian economy being vulnerable to negative shocks from China.
Key Quotes:
“The expectation of steady policy should help lend some support to AUD/USD going forward. The recent change in language from the RBA on the outlook for the AUD should also add support”.
“Although the softer prices of commodities has weakened the country’s terms of trades, volumes of exports has recently surprised on the upside with iron ore shipments to China continuing at a record pace in December and unexpectedly lifting the trade balance to a surplus”.
“On the back of recent developments we have revised up our 1 to 3 mth AUD/USD modestly and now expect a 0.89 to 0.91 range to hold most activity in this period”.
“That said, the Australia’s economy is still vulnerable to negative shocks from China and based on our concerns for Chinese growth we are maintaining are 12 mth AUD/USD forecast at 0.86”.
Key Quotes:
“The expectation of steady policy should help lend some support to AUD/USD going forward. The recent change in language from the RBA on the outlook for the AUD should also add support”.
“Although the softer prices of commodities has weakened the country’s terms of trades, volumes of exports has recently surprised on the upside with iron ore shipments to China continuing at a record pace in December and unexpectedly lifting the trade balance to a surplus”.
“On the back of recent developments we have revised up our 1 to 3 mth AUD/USD modestly and now expect a 0.89 to 0.91 range to hold most activity in this period”.
“That said, the Australia’s economy is still vulnerable to negative shocks from China and based on our concerns for Chinese growth we are maintaining are 12 mth AUD/USD forecast at 0.86”.