When are UK Jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits increased by 10.0k in the three months to June, compared to an increase of 7.3k booked in the three months to May.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to May are expected to tick lower to 1.8%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are expected to increase to 2.0%.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

 Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A bigger-than expected rise in the claimant count combined with weaker average earnings could knock-off Cable below 1.28 handle, below which doors would open up for a test of 1.2760-55 zone (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2589-1.3030 latest upswing). On a positive surprise, we could see the GBP/USD pair re-attempting recovery above 1.2870 levels, beyond which 1.2900 (round figure) guards further upside.

Key notes

UK unemployment rate probably held at 4.6% - Unicredit

UK labour data may leave MPC divided – Lloyds Bank

About UK jobs

The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).