EUR/USD bid above 1.0450 near term – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair’s stance remains bid while above 1.0450 in the short term.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD has seen a slight erosion of the 20 day ma which was not sustained and is probing the short term resistance line at 1.0606. – it is increasingly looking like a false break . The intraday Elliott wave counts are conflicting but suggest a test of 1.0700/07, the recent spike high and the 38.2% retracement. There is scope for 1.0875 the December high. The market stays bid near term while above 1.0450”.

“Failure here would cast attention back to the 1.0372/40 recent lows. We await a close below the 1.0372/40 lows from mid December 2016 to trigger another leg lower. Below 1.0340 will target parity and the 78.6% retracement at .9900 of the move 2000 to 2008”.