AUD/USD bears in control on a busy looking week ahead

AUD/USD is on a test of the 0.74 downside on broad dollar weakness at the start of this week in Asia. 

AUD/USD price action

In a volatile spell of late, we have been 0.7436 down to 0.7406 so far today and in the vicinity of the 200 sma at 0.704. AUD/USD had been better offered since the double top at 0.7504 on the 8th June down to 0.7285 where a recovery made it back the aforementioned high. This is a consolidation of the wider range from 0.7834 highs of 21st April earlier this year where the Aussie has been in decline since, recovering from the 0.7150 lows of late May business. 

AUD/USD fundamentals

AUD/USD has been trading on the back of the RBA and Fed around prospects for global growth. This has seen some stabilisation in recent months, gaining some traction since the start of the years mayhem, but the Central Banks are facing a conundrum. While the Fed is trying to normalise their monetary policy, yet unable to do so due to the US economy losing some of that recent traction made leading into the summer months while inflation remains apparent in the economy, the RBA, on the other hand, face quite the opposite currently with momentumpicking up in the economy, in such areas as the jobs sector, but the economy lacks the prefered inflationary levels for the RBA to act.  At the same time, volatility has returned to the markets and risk proves to aid the Aussie while a flight to safety is supporting the greenback. Stocks and commodity prices are the driving force behind the Aussie currently that too are volatile. For the week ahead, we have the RBA minutes, but really, it is all about Bremain or to Bexit on the 23rd June. However:

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AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD's 0.7503 interim top puts attention back to the 200 day ma at 0.7273, on a break of 0.7360. In the distance, further losses would open up the 78.6% retracement at 0.7044. Ahead of 0.6828 January low.  On a  correction back to the upside, above .7505 targets  0.7572 and potentially 0.7688, the 78.6% retracement of the sell off from April (not favoured), as suggested by analysts at Commerzbank. "Caution is warranted intraday Elliott counts are positive."