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25 Jan 2016
Central Banks in focus again, RBNZ, BoJ & FOMC
FXStreet (Guatemala) - This is a key week for the FXSpace with a number of Central Banks taking the focus again given the opening turmoil for 2016 and it taking a number of weeks for some form of return to stability, specifically with the yuan and a subsequent return of risk in an otherwise relatively event free calendar for the last number of sessions.
Looking back, there have been a number of calendared events that the markets were braced for, but the outcomes were somewhat lacking in direction in respect of price action on such events as the Chinese trade balance. This was a big positive surprise given the state of manufacturing sector and the value of the yuan which still wasn't able to rescue to antipodeans. GDP Q/Q for China Q4 was a miss at 1.6% vs 1.7%, but inline for y/y, slightly down from previous of 6.9% vs 6.8% actual.
The Aussie jobs data was another great performance in December that neither stalled nor rescued the bulls from the downside pressures of this year so far, and just recently, the New Zealand inflation data for Q4 was disappointing and added fuel to the bears fire who have been camping out on the offer since the landslide in the Chinese crisis and rout in stocks.
RBNZ, BoJ, Federal Reserve & FOMC
While all of this has been announced, the greenback and the Central Banks, including the Federal Reserve have been taking a back seat. That is likely to change now that there is some stability back after the Chinese 2016 opening debacle. Attentions will be back on the Central Banks this week with not just the Fe, but will include the RBNZ and BoJ. All meetings are questionable although the Fed and RBNZ are the most likely not to act.
The BoJ on the other hand has been tipped for a potential increase of their QQE programme while the strength of the Yen and ongoing weakness in the oil price have both been voiced by officials as a concern and a potential cause to act.
The Fed probably do not have enough incoming economic data to assess so early on in the year for any evidence that the recent slowdown in growth and inflation momentum is lasting in the US, but the Chinese situation may well be voiced and a reason not to be long dollars.
The RBNZ was surprisingly hawkish when the Central Bank cut, (a hawkish cut), but with dairy prices still sliding and Fonterra's recent bearish rhetoric and 2% inflation more elusive than ever, an easing bias could be expected.
Technical levels
NZD/USD has broken the descending resistance and moved out of the consolidation of the downtrend for the year so far. It has near term support from the 50 sma on the 4hr sticks at 0.6468 currently and targets a recovery towards R1 at 0.6525, R2 at 0.6542 and Rs at 0.6558 and recent highs.
USD/JPY has been in recovery since the dovish ECB meeting back onto the 118 handle. The price targets 119.58 R1 and 119.88 R2 for a score through the psychological handle of 120 to score R3 120.18. However, upside failures leave the downside exposed and a break below the key support levels of the 2014-2016 support line at 116.49 and the 116.15 August 2015 low opens up the 114.00/113.95 zone, being the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2011 low.
EUR/USD's recent range is between 1.1000 and 1.0800. 1.0845 is a key resistance that the price has fallen away from. The market is in consolidation of the recent recovery from Dec lows of 1.0523 and technically oversold on a near term basis. The price is neutral on the daily sticks approaching 36 on the RSI (14) reading. A break of 1.0845 exposes the picot 1.0863 ahead of R21.0947 and 1.1007 R3.
Looking back, there have been a number of calendared events that the markets were braced for, but the outcomes were somewhat lacking in direction in respect of price action on such events as the Chinese trade balance. This was a big positive surprise given the state of manufacturing sector and the value of the yuan which still wasn't able to rescue to antipodeans. GDP Q/Q for China Q4 was a miss at 1.6% vs 1.7%, but inline for y/y, slightly down from previous of 6.9% vs 6.8% actual.
The Aussie jobs data was another great performance in December that neither stalled nor rescued the bulls from the downside pressures of this year so far, and just recently, the New Zealand inflation data for Q4 was disappointing and added fuel to the bears fire who have been camping out on the offer since the landslide in the Chinese crisis and rout in stocks.
RBNZ, BoJ, Federal Reserve & FOMC
While all of this has been announced, the greenback and the Central Banks, including the Federal Reserve have been taking a back seat. That is likely to change now that there is some stability back after the Chinese 2016 opening debacle. Attentions will be back on the Central Banks this week with not just the Fe, but will include the RBNZ and BoJ. All meetings are questionable although the Fed and RBNZ are the most likely not to act.
The BoJ on the other hand has been tipped for a potential increase of their QQE programme while the strength of the Yen and ongoing weakness in the oil price have both been voiced by officials as a concern and a potential cause to act.
The Fed probably do not have enough incoming economic data to assess so early on in the year for any evidence that the recent slowdown in growth and inflation momentum is lasting in the US, but the Chinese situation may well be voiced and a reason not to be long dollars.
The RBNZ was surprisingly hawkish when the Central Bank cut, (a hawkish cut), but with dairy prices still sliding and Fonterra's recent bearish rhetoric and 2% inflation more elusive than ever, an easing bias could be expected.
Technical levels
NZD/USD has broken the descending resistance and moved out of the consolidation of the downtrend for the year so far. It has near term support from the 50 sma on the 4hr sticks at 0.6468 currently and targets a recovery towards R1 at 0.6525, R2 at 0.6542 and Rs at 0.6558 and recent highs.
USD/JPY has been in recovery since the dovish ECB meeting back onto the 118 handle. The price targets 119.58 R1 and 119.88 R2 for a score through the psychological handle of 120 to score R3 120.18. However, upside failures leave the downside exposed and a break below the key support levels of the 2014-2016 support line at 116.49 and the 116.15 August 2015 low opens up the 114.00/113.95 zone, being the 23.6% retracement of the entire move up from the 2011 low.
EUR/USD's recent range is between 1.1000 and 1.0800. 1.0845 is a key resistance that the price has fallen away from. The market is in consolidation of the recent recovery from Dec lows of 1.0523 and technically oversold on a near term basis. The price is neutral on the daily sticks approaching 36 on the RSI (14) reading. A break of 1.0845 exposes the picot 1.0863 ahead of R21.0947 and 1.1007 R3.