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13 Jan 2016
China marks the bad start to the year – ANZ
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at ANZ, notes that 2016 got off to a bad start with the weakening in the RMB fixings sparking concerns that the Chinese authorities are seeking to depreciate the currency, leading to a sell-off in the yuan.
Key Quotes
“The Chinese equity market also sold off sharply on growth concerns, with the yuan weakness also contributing to it. Bearish sentiment towards the RMB resulted in the onshore-offshore spot spread widening to as much as 1500 pips at one stage.
However, since Friday, the authorities have attempted to rein in depreciation concerns through setting much stronger fixings, intervening in the offshore market, and having senior officials explain the recent RMB moves.
There is no doubt that the CNY fixings last week, which sparked the depreciation concerns, were weaker than expected – even taking into account the broad USD moves. Looking at the RMB Exchange Rate Index, which was launched in mid-December 2015 and has been given increased prominence by the PBoC, there has been a clear weakening by around 1% on a basket basis since early this year.
Attempts to stabilise the currency occurred when the RMB index fell below the 100 level on Friday, where it was last seen in 31 December 2014. It appears to us that the authorities could be trying to maintain the RMB index at around the 100 level for now. The PBoC Chief Economist, Ma Jun, has stated that they are taking into account the basket stability in setting the fixings, which is a departure from the fixing mechanism introduced in August last year.”
Key Quotes
“The Chinese equity market also sold off sharply on growth concerns, with the yuan weakness also contributing to it. Bearish sentiment towards the RMB resulted in the onshore-offshore spot spread widening to as much as 1500 pips at one stage.
However, since Friday, the authorities have attempted to rein in depreciation concerns through setting much stronger fixings, intervening in the offshore market, and having senior officials explain the recent RMB moves.
There is no doubt that the CNY fixings last week, which sparked the depreciation concerns, were weaker than expected – even taking into account the broad USD moves. Looking at the RMB Exchange Rate Index, which was launched in mid-December 2015 and has been given increased prominence by the PBoC, there has been a clear weakening by around 1% on a basket basis since early this year.
Attempts to stabilise the currency occurred when the RMB index fell below the 100 level on Friday, where it was last seen in 31 December 2014. It appears to us that the authorities could be trying to maintain the RMB index at around the 100 level for now. The PBoC Chief Economist, Ma Jun, has stated that they are taking into account the basket stability in setting the fixings, which is a departure from the fixing mechanism introduced in August last year.”