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17 Dec 2015
Bullish on EM's moving into 2016 - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that the Fed has finally ended a decade-long hiking fast and the world is still here. No collapse, no disaster, no particularly nefarious event. Life simply goes on.
Key Quotes:
From an emerging markets viewpoint, higher Fed funds rates have caused a somewhat muted reaction yesterday. Only a few currencies sold off after the announcement on moves that tracked EUR/USD adjustments rather than being the expression of a real risk-off response. Several EMFX have even appreciated, especially the high betas that usually react faster.
One hour into the Fed announcement, EUR/USD was up 0.2% vs levels 30 minutes prior to it. In the same period, all EM currencies that were trading at that time—either spot or NDF—were posting gains against the dollar. The strongest performers were the South African rand, the Turkish lira, the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso. Bar the BRL that lives a life of its own, the other three currencies are the usual suspects.
But whether a tightening cycle albeit gradual in the US can be entirely sustained by these economies, and especially their corporate sectors, is a completely different matter. It will take time to test the EM resilience to higher interest rates. For now, the market is reassessing the implications of higher US rates and EMFX appears slightly more under pressure than yesterday. But the initial reaction remains somewhat reassuring and for now supports our more bullish view on EMs going into 2016."
Key Quotes:
From an emerging markets viewpoint, higher Fed funds rates have caused a somewhat muted reaction yesterday. Only a few currencies sold off after the announcement on moves that tracked EUR/USD adjustments rather than being the expression of a real risk-off response. Several EMFX have even appreciated, especially the high betas that usually react faster.
One hour into the Fed announcement, EUR/USD was up 0.2% vs levels 30 minutes prior to it. In the same period, all EM currencies that were trading at that time—either spot or NDF—were posting gains against the dollar. The strongest performers were the South African rand, the Turkish lira, the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso. Bar the BRL that lives a life of its own, the other three currencies are the usual suspects.
But whether a tightening cycle albeit gradual in the US can be entirely sustained by these economies, and especially their corporate sectors, is a completely different matter. It will take time to test the EM resilience to higher interest rates. For now, the market is reassessing the implications of higher US rates and EMFX appears slightly more under pressure than yesterday. But the initial reaction remains somewhat reassuring and for now supports our more bullish view on EMs going into 2016."