Back
14 Dec 2015
Colombia: Signs of growth deceleration despite GDP headline - Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to Gustavo Canonero, Head of Economic Research for Emerging Markets at Deutsche Bank Securities, the third quarter Colombian GDP report shows signs of deceleration despite the solid number.
Key Quotes:
“The Administrative Department of National Statistics (DANE) reported that the monthly index of economic activity contracted 0.21% MoM in September, bringing the annual rate down to 2.63%YoY from a peak of 3.16% YoY in August.
“The DANE also released supply side national statistics, suggesting that economic growth reached 3.2%YoY in 3Q15, in line with our expectations and slightly below market consensus (3.3%YoY).”
“After a long lag, activity data seems to suggest that domestic credit and private construction are finally cooling off, helped by higher inflation and rates tightening. Next year, the reopening of the Cartagena refinery, large road infrastructure concessions and a weak currency are expected to stimulate oil-related activity, civil works and export-oriented industries. As a result, we project economic growth to average 3% in 2015 and ease to 2.9% in 2016.”
Key Quotes:
“The Administrative Department of National Statistics (DANE) reported that the monthly index of economic activity contracted 0.21% MoM in September, bringing the annual rate down to 2.63%YoY from a peak of 3.16% YoY in August.
“The DANE also released supply side national statistics, suggesting that economic growth reached 3.2%YoY in 3Q15, in line with our expectations and slightly below market consensus (3.3%YoY).”
“After a long lag, activity data seems to suggest that domestic credit and private construction are finally cooling off, helped by higher inflation and rates tightening. Next year, the reopening of the Cartagena refinery, large road infrastructure concessions and a weak currency are expected to stimulate oil-related activity, civil works and export-oriented industries. As a result, we project economic growth to average 3% in 2015 and ease to 2.9% in 2016.”