Back
30 Oct 2015
EUR/NOK seen higher by year-end – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Arne Rasmussen believes the cross could gain further ground in the next months.
Key Quotes
“Historically, the last months of the year are typically characterised by a worsening of NOK liquidity, which consequently tends to be a seasonal EUR/NOK supportive factor”.
“Indeed, in the past 10 years EUR/NOK has on average moved 2.3% higher in November and December with a median appreciation of 1.5%. Adding to this, economic figures are still not suggesting that the Norwegian business cycle is close to turning around, which in our view will be the main trigger for NOK appreciation as Norges Bank can signal that no more cuts are needed”.
“As a result, we expect that EUR/NOK in the coming months will continue to trade at elevated levels, around current spot, with the possibility of large intraday swings”.
Key Quotes
“Historically, the last months of the year are typically characterised by a worsening of NOK liquidity, which consequently tends to be a seasonal EUR/NOK supportive factor”.
“Indeed, in the past 10 years EUR/NOK has on average moved 2.3% higher in November and December with a median appreciation of 1.5%. Adding to this, economic figures are still not suggesting that the Norwegian business cycle is close to turning around, which in our view will be the main trigger for NOK appreciation as Norges Bank can signal that no more cuts are needed”.
“As a result, we expect that EUR/NOK in the coming months will continue to trade at elevated levels, around current spot, with the possibility of large intraday swings”.