Back
29 Oct 2015
EUR/USD: significant impacts turns momentum - BTMU
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that the momentum for EUR/USD looks to have turned and there have been significant events on both sides of this currency cross that points to limited upside scope over the short-term.
Key Quotes:
"The ECB appears much more worried about low inflation and the advance inflation estimate tomorrow should see the annual rate at zero percent. But if there is action from data releases, it is more likely to come from the US side."
"The Employment Cost Index tomorrow is important – the surprisingly weak 0.2% print in Q2 triggered a big market move and tomorrow should see this Q/Q rate rebound to a more respectable 0.6% gain. Then next week the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ADP employment report will be the key releases shaping market expectations ahead of the NFP at the end of the week."
"We would expect the ADP employment report to be consistent with some pick-up in jobs growth relative to the subdued NFP readings over August and September. After the FOMC statement there will be a lot of attention to Fed speakers.
Fed Presidents Williams (voter) George and Harker (non-voters) will speak as will Chair Yellen (on regulation though), Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley. Ahead of NFP day, it really will be about Fed speakers and one can only assume the message will be similar to last night’s statement – something along the lines of ‘show us why we shouldn’t now raise rates’."
Key Quotes:
"The ECB appears much more worried about low inflation and the advance inflation estimate tomorrow should see the annual rate at zero percent. But if there is action from data releases, it is more likely to come from the US side."
"The Employment Cost Index tomorrow is important – the surprisingly weak 0.2% print in Q2 triggered a big market move and tomorrow should see this Q/Q rate rebound to a more respectable 0.6% gain. Then next week the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ADP employment report will be the key releases shaping market expectations ahead of the NFP at the end of the week."
"We would expect the ADP employment report to be consistent with some pick-up in jobs growth relative to the subdued NFP readings over August and September. After the FOMC statement there will be a lot of attention to Fed speakers.
Fed Presidents Williams (voter) George and Harker (non-voters) will speak as will Chair Yellen (on regulation though), Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley. Ahead of NFP day, it really will be about Fed speakers and one can only assume the message will be similar to last night’s statement – something along the lines of ‘show us why we shouldn’t now raise rates’."