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6 Oct 2015
JPY: Japanese economic outlook lowered for FY15-17 - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, has lowered its forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth rate in FY15 (from +1.2% to +1.0%; as of 8 September), and also slashed its estimates for FY16 (from +1.9% to +1.6%) and for FY17 (from 0.0% to -0.2%) in response to their Chinese economic team substantially lowering its forecast for China’s economic growth rate on 5 October, and based on key Japan data for August, and the results of the BOJ’s September Tankan survey.
Key Quotes
“For China’s real GDP growth rate, we trim our projection for 2015 (from +6.9% to +6.8%), but reduce our estimates substantially for 2016 (from +6.7% to +5.8%) and for 2017 (from +6.2% to +5.6%).”
“We have reduced our Japanese economic growth rate projections for our entire forecast period, primarily because: (1) we now expect the adverse effects on Japanese exports and capex from a more severe economic slowdown in China to be greater than previously assumed; and (2) we take into account other factors, such as the indirect adverse impact on Japan from conditions in countries and economies outside of China.”
Key Quotes
“For China’s real GDP growth rate, we trim our projection for 2015 (from +6.9% to +6.8%), but reduce our estimates substantially for 2016 (from +6.7% to +5.8%) and for 2017 (from +6.2% to +5.6%).”
“We have reduced our Japanese economic growth rate projections for our entire forecast period, primarily because: (1) we now expect the adverse effects on Japanese exports and capex from a more severe economic slowdown in China to be greater than previously assumed; and (2) we take into account other factors, such as the indirect adverse impact on Japan from conditions in countries and economies outside of China.”