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3 Sep 2015
ECB Preview: Dovish tone expected - RBS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts team at RBS, expect more dovish tone from ECB and do not expect any major announcements in terms of extension of banks massive QE or any step towards its acceleration.
Key Quotes
“We expect a more dovish tone today, but no giant steps toward a QE extension and eventual acceleration. We see two focal points: (1) The treatment of the ‘unwarranted tightening’ via higher real yields and (2) ECB staff inflation forecasts.”
“We expect heightened alert on ‘unwarranted tightening’ in the Q&A but nothing more at this stage. The staff forecasts may be revised down by 0.1pp for both 2016 and 2017, small changes, and they will likely remain at the higher end of international forecasts.”
“We think the risks are on the downside given tougher conditioning assumptions (oil, EUR, global demand), whilst Mr Constâncio’s remarks at Jackson Hole leave room to question the ECB's hawkish output gap assumptions.”
Key Quotes
“We expect a more dovish tone today, but no giant steps toward a QE extension and eventual acceleration. We see two focal points: (1) The treatment of the ‘unwarranted tightening’ via higher real yields and (2) ECB staff inflation forecasts.”
“We expect heightened alert on ‘unwarranted tightening’ in the Q&A but nothing more at this stage. The staff forecasts may be revised down by 0.1pp for both 2016 and 2017, small changes, and they will likely remain at the higher end of international forecasts.”
“We think the risks are on the downside given tougher conditioning assumptions (oil, EUR, global demand), whilst Mr Constâncio’s remarks at Jackson Hole leave room to question the ECB's hawkish output gap assumptions.”