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19 May 2015
EUR/GBP to see 0.69, 12 M view – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategist at JP Morgan, share their forecasts for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP, revising the numbers higher on a potential stronger GBP view.
Key Quotes
“We have revised up our near-term forecasts for GBP to reflect the unexpectedly smooth resolution to the election. The June forecast for EUR/GBP is cut from 0.75 to 0.72; the cable forecast is changed by even more (from 1.43 to 1.55) as a consequence of the upward revisions to the EUR/USD forecast.”
“We have also moderately raised the one-year GBP forecast (from 0.70 to 0.69 on EUR/GBP) to reflect the positive impact on near-term economic confidence from the election and the potential for earlier BoE tightening should the stepup in wage growth in the past two months persist.”
“Our economists expect the BoE to start tightening a quarter or so earlier than the market does, so 1Q16 rather than mid-2016, which should lift GBP around the end of the forecast horizon, although quite by how much will depends on the extent of momentum in the economy at that point.”
Key Quotes
“We have revised up our near-term forecasts for GBP to reflect the unexpectedly smooth resolution to the election. The June forecast for EUR/GBP is cut from 0.75 to 0.72; the cable forecast is changed by even more (from 1.43 to 1.55) as a consequence of the upward revisions to the EUR/USD forecast.”
“We have also moderately raised the one-year GBP forecast (from 0.70 to 0.69 on EUR/GBP) to reflect the positive impact on near-term economic confidence from the election and the potential for earlier BoE tightening should the stepup in wage growth in the past two months persist.”
“Our economists expect the BoE to start tightening a quarter or so earlier than the market does, so 1Q16 rather than mid-2016, which should lift GBP around the end of the forecast horizon, although quite by how much will depends on the extent of momentum in the economy at that point.”