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13 May 2015
Eurozone GDP preview: Recovery set to be confirmed in Q1 – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Peter Vanden Houte, Chief Economist, Belgium , Eurozone, at ING, previews the Eurozone GDP data release, noting that the first estimate of growth for the first quarter 2015 is likely to show slight growth acceleration.
Key Quotes
“Today’s first GDP estimate is likely to see 0.4% growth quarter-on-quarter. We had been perceiving the risks as skewed to the upside, although the softer German GDP growth suggests this may be a struggle now.”
“Sentiment indicators have been on average stronger in the first quarter than in the last quarter of 2014, suggesting a growth pace above 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Especially consumption has likely made a strong growth contribution, with households benefiting from the drop in energy prices and buoyant financial markets boosting confidence. Retail sales grew 0.7% over the first quarter (about the same pace as in the fourth quarter, while car sales saw a substantial acceleration.”
“Of the countries already having published their first quarter growth figures we saw 0.3% growth in Belgium, while the Spanish economy expanded by 0.9%.”
“The first confidence indicators for the second quarter levelled off a bit, now that oil prices have increased and the euro exchange rate strengthened. Barring a “Greek accident” the Eurozone should still be able to attain 1.5% growth for the whole of the year.”
Key Quotes
“Today’s first GDP estimate is likely to see 0.4% growth quarter-on-quarter. We had been perceiving the risks as skewed to the upside, although the softer German GDP growth suggests this may be a struggle now.”
“Sentiment indicators have been on average stronger in the first quarter than in the last quarter of 2014, suggesting a growth pace above 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Especially consumption has likely made a strong growth contribution, with households benefiting from the drop in energy prices and buoyant financial markets boosting confidence. Retail sales grew 0.7% over the first quarter (about the same pace as in the fourth quarter, while car sales saw a substantial acceleration.”
“Of the countries already having published their first quarter growth figures we saw 0.3% growth in Belgium, while the Spanish economy expanded by 0.9%.”
“The first confidence indicators for the second quarter levelled off a bit, now that oil prices have increased and the euro exchange rate strengthened. Barring a “Greek accident” the Eurozone should still be able to attain 1.5% growth for the whole of the year.”