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22 Apr 2015
Germany: still the main beneficiaries of ECB’s QE – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Carsten Brzeski of ING, sees the recent ZEW index release as a confirmation for their outlook for German economy, with ECB’s QE and fundamentals expected to power the economy ahead.
Key Quotes
“Yesterday’s ZEW index had something for everyone, both pessimists and optimists. At face value, the drop in the headline figure to 53.3, from 54.8 in March, could be regarded as a sign of caution and maybe even new uncertainty stemming from the Greek crisis. At second glance, however, it is very hard to find any sense of pessimism in yesterday’s ZEW reading.”
“In fact, the current assessment component of the ZEW index reached its highest level since July 2011. With the strong increase, it does not really come as a surprise that the headline index saw a small decline. In fact, when it comes to the ZEW index, everything is relative.”
“As the starting position is much stronger than in March, the small drop in the headline figure is another sign of optimism, rather than new pessimism.”
“Moreover, judging from the combination of the current assessment component and the outlook, the ZEW index has never ever painted a rosier scenario for the German economy than yesterday.”
“Over the last two years, the ZEW index has returned as an interesting and more reliable indicator for future economic growth. While between 2010 and 2012, the fundamental and structural strength of the German economy prevailed, it is now cyclical factors like dropping oil prices, a weakening euro and the ECB’s QE, which are the most important growth drivers.”
“Against this background, ZEW index confirms our positive take on the German economy. As a main beneficiary of the ECB’s QE programme, supported by sound domestic fundamentals, the German economy should power ahead.”
“Only the benign neglect of the possible fallout of the – once again – escalating Greek crisis calls for caution. The situation is clearly more dangerous and volatile than financial market participants seem to believe.”
Key Quotes
“Yesterday’s ZEW index had something for everyone, both pessimists and optimists. At face value, the drop in the headline figure to 53.3, from 54.8 in March, could be regarded as a sign of caution and maybe even new uncertainty stemming from the Greek crisis. At second glance, however, it is very hard to find any sense of pessimism in yesterday’s ZEW reading.”
“In fact, the current assessment component of the ZEW index reached its highest level since July 2011. With the strong increase, it does not really come as a surprise that the headline index saw a small decline. In fact, when it comes to the ZEW index, everything is relative.”
“As the starting position is much stronger than in March, the small drop in the headline figure is another sign of optimism, rather than new pessimism.”
“Moreover, judging from the combination of the current assessment component and the outlook, the ZEW index has never ever painted a rosier scenario for the German economy than yesterday.”
“Over the last two years, the ZEW index has returned as an interesting and more reliable indicator for future economic growth. While between 2010 and 2012, the fundamental and structural strength of the German economy prevailed, it is now cyclical factors like dropping oil prices, a weakening euro and the ECB’s QE, which are the most important growth drivers.”
“Against this background, ZEW index confirms our positive take on the German economy. As a main beneficiary of the ECB’s QE programme, supported by sound domestic fundamentals, the German economy should power ahead.”
“Only the benign neglect of the possible fallout of the – once again – escalating Greek crisis calls for caution. The situation is clearly more dangerous and volatile than financial market participants seem to believe.”