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5 Jul 2013
Flash: US jobs call – Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (London) - Kit Juckes, an analyst at Societe Generale said the market consensus for US payrolls looks for an increase of 165,000.
He explains this is coming after mixed data overall but strength in jobs-specific indicators (claims, ADP, the employment components of the ISM surveys). "I think the 'neutral' range is 150-200, ie slightly skewed above the consensus figure". As important as the payroll increase (which would keep employment growth at a decent 1.6% rate) is the unemployment rate, which he said probably fell from 7.6%, perhaps to 7.4%. Given that it is the unemployment rate which Mr Bernanke is watching most closely of all, he feels a 0.2% fall would likely wreak some more havoc on the Treasury market, and give the dollar more of a bid.
He explains this is coming after mixed data overall but strength in jobs-specific indicators (claims, ADP, the employment components of the ISM surveys). "I think the 'neutral' range is 150-200, ie slightly skewed above the consensus figure". As important as the payroll increase (which would keep employment growth at a decent 1.6% rate) is the unemployment rate, which he said probably fell from 7.6%, perhaps to 7.4%. Given that it is the unemployment rate which Mr Bernanke is watching most closely of all, he feels a 0.2% fall would likely wreak some more havoc on the Treasury market, and give the dollar more of a bid.