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6 Feb 2015
RBA SoMP: Feb rate cut to support demand, lowers 2015 GDP forecast
FXStreet (Bali) - The RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy has been published, including a more in-depth assessment of the economic outlook, both domestic and international, together with an updated view on inflation, employment figures and the value of the Aussie.
Key headlines - via Reuters
Feb rate cut to support demand, provides no forward guidance
A$ above most estimates of fair value, providing less aid to economy than it could
Growth to be below trend for longer, spare capacity to last for some time yet
Lowers gdp forecast for 2015 by 0.25 ppt, similar cut to underlying inflation out to 2016
y/y gdp seen at 2.25-3.25 pct end 2015, 3-4 pct end 2016, 3-4.5 pct by june 2017
Underlying inflation seen at 2.25 pct mid 2015, 2-3 pct end 2015 out to june 2017
Unemployment to rise bit further, peak later than anticipated
Abs data, liaison suggests mining investment could fall by more than 10 pct in 2014/15
Non-mining investment still subdued, pick-up to occur later than previously expected
Housing market will need to be watched carefully, regulators working to contain risks
Fall in petrol prices likely to subtract 0.5 ppt from cpi in q1, boost household incomes
Ramp up in lng output slower than expected, still add 0.75 ppt to gdp in 2016/17
Uncertainties include outlook for commodity prices, divergent global monetary trends
China growth projected at or little below 7 pct in 2015, property market a key uncertainty
Key headlines - via Reuters
Feb rate cut to support demand, provides no forward guidance
A$ above most estimates of fair value, providing less aid to economy than it could
Growth to be below trend for longer, spare capacity to last for some time yet
Lowers gdp forecast for 2015 by 0.25 ppt, similar cut to underlying inflation out to 2016
y/y gdp seen at 2.25-3.25 pct end 2015, 3-4 pct end 2016, 3-4.5 pct by june 2017
Underlying inflation seen at 2.25 pct mid 2015, 2-3 pct end 2015 out to june 2017
Unemployment to rise bit further, peak later than anticipated
Abs data, liaison suggests mining investment could fall by more than 10 pct in 2014/15
Non-mining investment still subdued, pick-up to occur later than previously expected
Housing market will need to be watched carefully, regulators working to contain risks
Fall in petrol prices likely to subtract 0.5 ppt from cpi in q1, boost household incomes
Ramp up in lng output slower than expected, still add 0.75 ppt to gdp in 2016/17
Uncertainties include outlook for commodity prices, divergent global monetary trends
China growth projected at or little below 7 pct in 2015, property market a key uncertainty