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5 Dec 2014
Key events coming up - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the up and coming events that may liven things up at the end of this weeks session.
Key Quotes:
“So to today, and we begin with German factory orders, which are expected +0.5% MoM but flat YoY, underlining the deterioration in the engine-room of the Eurozone’s economic dynamo. Next it is Eurozone Q3 GDP, where expectations are for a meager 0.2% QoQ print, again, which will be equivalent to 0.8% YoY – not officially a recession yet, but hardly what one can call a recovery some six years in to that apparent cycle. Indeed, capital expenditure is seen dropping 0.2% QoQ after a revised 0.9% plunge in Q2”.
“Then it’s the dish of the day – US payrolls. Consensus is 230K, up from 214K in October, with the official unemployment rate seen staying at 5.8% (there is no expectation for the underemployment rate, which was 11.5% last time). But will that kind of print tell us anything that we don’t know? The comfortable consensus is already that US rates will go up at some point next year. Perhaps more pointedly, however, average earnings are seen up 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY – hardly at a level to worry Fed hawks, so still suggesting any rate hike cycle will be late in starting, slow, and finish low”.
“The US trade balance is seen narrowing from –USD43.0bn to –USD41.2bn; factory orders are released too, and are seen flat MoM; and we get consumer credit, seen rising to USD16.5bn. We are finally getting traction in the latter – but far too much is still in student and (sub-prime) auto loans. There are then two Fed speakers to round out a US-centric session: Mester and Fischer”.
Key Quotes:
“So to today, and we begin with German factory orders, which are expected +0.5% MoM but flat YoY, underlining the deterioration in the engine-room of the Eurozone’s economic dynamo. Next it is Eurozone Q3 GDP, where expectations are for a meager 0.2% QoQ print, again, which will be equivalent to 0.8% YoY – not officially a recession yet, but hardly what one can call a recovery some six years in to that apparent cycle. Indeed, capital expenditure is seen dropping 0.2% QoQ after a revised 0.9% plunge in Q2”.
“Then it’s the dish of the day – US payrolls. Consensus is 230K, up from 214K in October, with the official unemployment rate seen staying at 5.8% (there is no expectation for the underemployment rate, which was 11.5% last time). But will that kind of print tell us anything that we don’t know? The comfortable consensus is already that US rates will go up at some point next year. Perhaps more pointedly, however, average earnings are seen up 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY – hardly at a level to worry Fed hawks, so still suggesting any rate hike cycle will be late in starting, slow, and finish low”.
“The US trade balance is seen narrowing from –USD43.0bn to –USD41.2bn; factory orders are released too, and are seen flat MoM; and we get consumer credit, seen rising to USD16.5bn. We are finally getting traction in the latter – but far too much is still in student and (sub-prime) auto loans. There are then two Fed speakers to round out a US-centric session: Mester and Fischer”.