EUR/USD: Immediate catalyst for a further upside break is not obvious – ING

EUR/USD has galloped towards 1.09. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Italy ratings event risk

EUR/USD got a brief lift on Thursday from the initial claims data, but a clear and immediate catalyst for a further upside break is not obvious. 

After the close today there is an event risk of a Moody’s rating decision on Italy. Moody’s has the Italian sovereign rating at one notch above junk and on a negative outlook. However, we doubt Moody’s will cut Italy to junk today since it would not want to be seen to be initiating turmoil in the European government bond markets. 

A ratings cut would be a surprise, however, and renew interest in a potential stand-off between Italy and Brussels early next year were the Eurozone debt brake to be introduced. This would be Euro negative and in our view send EUR/CHF back to 0.95 again.