USD/INR to hold around 82.00 by Q3 and drift lower to 81.50 by year-end – Commerzbank

Year-to-date, INR is unchanged vs USD. Economists at Commerzbank share their USD/INR forecast.

Rising cost pressures will force RBI to remain vigilant

INR continues to be well supported by strong economic fundamentals. The latest PMI reports for both manufacturing and services remained robust.

RBI left rates unchanged at 6.50% for the third consecutive meeting in August. There is no incentive for RBI to alter policy anytime soon. They will continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Nevertheless, RBI would need to stay vigilant on a potential reversal in food prices. It would need to keep a close eye on the upcoming monsoon season.

We project USD/INR to hold around 82.00 by Q3 2023 and drift lower to 81.50 by end-2023 and 81.00 by end-2024.

Source: Commerzbank Research