USD/CNH risks a move below the 7.1800 level near term – UOB

A potential drop and visit to the 7.1800 region could be in the offing for USD/CNH in the short-term horizon, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: Our view for USD to trade in a range was incorrect. USD fell to a low of 7.2250 in NY trade last Friday before extending its decline in early Asian trade today. Downward momentum is building rapidly and the risk is for further USD decline. That said, the major support at 7.1800 is likely out of reach today. Resistance is at 7.2330, followed by 7.2455.

Next 1-3 weeks: Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (05 Jul, spot at 7.2280) wherein USD “is likely to trade in a range of 7.1800/7.2800 for now.” Last Friday, USD dropped sharply by 0.32% (NY close of 7.2320) and it continued to drop in early Asian trade today. Short-term momentum is building rapidly, and the risk of USD pulling back below 7.1800 has increased. Only a breach of 7.2650 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the buildup in momentum has faded.